Chances of renewal: 50-50
Fringe (Fox) Despite low ratings, Fringe has managed more or less to hold its own in the most difficult timeslot on television, Thursdays at 9 p.m. ET/PT. This has been especially noticeable since Past Life has taken over the timeslot to the tune of 2 million fewer viewers while Fringe takes a break. All things considered—the rabid fan base, the terrible timeslot, the excellent showing in DVR ratings—and it adds up to a solid performance.
James Hibberd's Live Feed wrote: "Boy, this show took a beating on Thursdays this fall, yet along with Bones has given Fox a foothold on TV's most competitive night and recently shown improvement."
Latest ratings: 7.76 million viewers
Chances of renewal: 70 percent
Ghost Whisperer (CBS) Friday's top-rated show so far this season has taken a bit of a hit this year, along with all the Friday shows. But it's very unlikely CBS would be willing to cancel more than one of its Friday shows, and NUMB3RS looks likely to take that hit. It's likely Melinda Gordon will be able to continue her ghostly social work for another season.
CBS entertainment president Nina Tassler stated: "It's clear we have two shows there with Ghost Whisperer and with Medium that have a good flow from one into the other, so we will continue to program there for Friday night. For us, we still see opportunities."
Latest ratings: 8.77 million viewers
Chances of renewal: 75 percent
Heroes (NBC) Believe it or not, despite terrible ratings, Heroes has a chance at fifth season. The ratings have stabilized, and the series gains another million-plus viewers when DVR ratings are counted in. NBC is trying to rebuild its schedule thanks to The Jay Leno Show debacle, and Heroes at least brings in a loyal audience, it does well overseas and it's a high-profile, original series. That said, a very strong case could be made for the show's cancellation as well.
James Hibberd's Live Feed commented: "This season, Heroes continued its decline and is now at a level—around a 2.0 adults 18-49 rating—that would warrant cancellation under most circumstances. The deciding factor here is NBC's internal balance sheet for the production. Don't be surprised if NBC announces a 12-hour 'final chapter' for next fall."
Latest ratings: 4.41 million viewers
Chances of renewal: 40 percent
Human Target (Fox) This new midseason replacement is finally leveling off to some decent ratings. While it's certainly getting a bump from American Idol, the last couple of episodes have been very entertaining, and the series seems to be finding its feet. And considering the series will most likely do well in reruns, given its episodic nature, we're liking its chances for a second season so far.
Media Week's Marc Berman said: "On Fox was recently introduced drama Human Target at a distant second-place finish in both total viewers (7.14 million) and adults 18-49 (2.1/ 6) from 8-9 p.m. Considering Human Target faced The Winter Olympics, this is still a respectable showing."
Latest pre-Olympic ratings: 8.92 million viewers
Chances of renewal: 45 percent
Medium (CBS) This very compatible Ghost Whisperer companion show has done as well as could be expected on Fridays, capturing almost all of its lead-in audience and sometimes outperforming Ghost Whisperer by a smidge. NUMB3RS looks likely to be canceled at this point if anything goes on Fridays, and it's doubtful CBS will cancel more than one Friday show. But with new series Miami Medical taking over NUMB3RS' slot on April 2, there's the unlikely possibility that Miami could do well enough to make a case for Medium's exit. Still, at this point, we're guessing Allison DuBois will likely have a home for one more year.
Variety's Michael Schneider writes: "With Numbers the most likely to exit—so much so that star David Krumholtz has already been cast in a new pilot—it's doubtful Eye would want to drop a second Friday night series, so Medium (which CBS swiped from NBC last year) is probably safe."
Latest ratings: 9.10 million viewers
Chances of renewal: 0 percent
Smallville (The CW) When The CW moved Smallville from Thursdays to Fridays, it looked like it could be the end of this reliable performer. Certainly Smallville didn't quite seem to fit with the younger-skewing shows the network was banking on, such as The Vampire Diaries. Then something strange and wonderful happened: Apparently the fans weren't ready to let Smallville die. The producers are still doing fine creative work, and the series has finally given The CW some ratings on Friday nights. While Smallville didn't get an early pickup like Vampire Diaries or Supernatural, it's looking very good for a 10th season, with Super Clark and his friends. And BTW, don't be surprised if it does get another season and we see one or two additional Smallville movies along the lines of Absolute Justice.
Media Week's Marc Berman comments: "While Smallville, of course, is down year-to-year from its former Thursday performance, it is unlikely anything else would perform better for The CW on troubled Friday."
Latest ratings: 2.48 million viewers
Chances of renewal: 90 percent
V (ABC) Those beautiful alien invaders are in the same boat as the FlashFowarders. The series returns on March 30, and it's airing after Lost in the 10 p.m. timeslot, which is a good thing. With Lost in its final season, V's likely to grab a few viewers, which should help its bottom line. But V is pretty much starting over, and it will only have eight episodes to get you caught up in the revolution.
TVbytheNumbers.com's Bill Gorman stated: "V's future entirely rests on how its ratings do on its return in March. Its fall episode ratings are meaningless now. No guesses from me."
Latest ratings: 9.20 million viewers
sci-fi wire...